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Wed 23 April
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Fri 25 April
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Sat 26 April
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Wednesday 23 April 2014 11.00 - 13.00
T-2 FAM10 Studying Innovative Demographic Behavior using Sequence Analysis
Hörsaal 46 second floor
Network: Family and Demography Chair: Gilbert Ritschard
Organizer: Ward Neyrinck Discussant: Gilbert Ritschard
Tom Kleinepier, Helga de Valk : Life Paths of Polish Migrants in the Netherlands: Timing and Sequencing of Events
Polish migration to the Netherlands has increased substantially over the past decade and is one of the main origins of migrants settling in the country nowadays. Nevertheless, still little is known about this large and growing group of migrants. In this study, we examine to what extent migration affects the ... (Show more)
Polish migration to the Netherlands has increased substantially over the past decade and is one of the main origins of migrants settling in the country nowadays. Nevertheless, still little is known about this large and growing group of migrants. In this study, we examine to what extent migration affects the timing (“when”) and sequencing (“in what order”) of family-life transitions and how this relates to return migration of Polish migrants in the Netherlands. The majority of studies on family-life transitions of migrants exclusively focus on one transition only, which is unfortunate as different events in the life course are not separate experiences, but are linked to one another. Therefore, we apply a more holistic approach by using sequence analysis followed by optimal matching (OM) analysis to assess (dis-)similarities between individual life trajectories. We then use standard clustering algorithms to group the different individuals into predominant life paths. In this way, we can include multiple transitions in the family domain (migration, union formation, childbirth, divorce) simultaneously and study life courses as meaningful units. Our analyses focus on young adult (aged 20-26 at migration) Polish labour migrants who came to the Netherlands in the period 2004-2007. We follow the life-courses of these migrants for a period of five years on a monthly time scale. Data come from a rich individual administrative panel database that covers the entire population of the Netherlands: the Social Statistical Database (SSD) housed by Statistics Netherlands. Preliminary analyses reveal that a large share (about 40 percent) of the Polish migrants leaves the Netherlands within our five-year observation window. In particular men who migrated at relative young ages have a high likelihood to leave the Netherlands after a while, which seems to be related to the fact that these migrants more often remain single. (Show less)

Ward Neyrinck, Koen Matthijs : Innovative Parental Careers as a Response to Declining Infant and Child Mortality. A Sequence Analysis of the 19th and 20th Century Population of the District of Antwerp
In this paper we will examine the fertility transition from the point of view of the life course: when did changes in the starting, spacing and stopping of childbirth take place? How does this relate to the trajectory lived by the same individuals, women and men, in terms of the ... (Show more)
In this paper we will examine the fertility transition from the point of view of the life course: when did changes in the starting, spacing and stopping of childbirth take place? How does this relate to the trajectory lived by the same individuals, women and men, in terms of the deaths of their children? We will use sequence analysis to investigate the population of the Antwerp district in the second half of the 19th century and beginning of the 20th century, as this is the time when the fertility transition took place in this region.

Through the use of sequence analysis we are able to divide our individuals in clusters (groups) based on the timing of their marriage (if there is one), the births of their children and the moment where they have their last child. This can lead to groups such as women who married early and had many children, women who stopped giving birth at young ages, men who married late and had only a few children, etc. One of the strengths of sequence analysis is that patterns can be found that the researcher may not have been looking for, but that are present in the data, which makes it a great tool for an exploratory analysis. We are particularly interested in the connection between groups with similarity in terms of mortality (mortality clusters) and groups with similarity in terms of child births (fertility clusters). We wish to see whether a woman’s life course changed first by having fewer infant and child deaths after which she had longer birth intervals and/or earlier stopping, as can be expected by the theory of demographic transition. We will also try to use sequence analysis as a tool to determine the periodization of the fertility transition in Antwerp, and to compare the life courses of different groups of men and women in terms of socioeconomic status and place of residence. Finally, we also hope to relate individuals and their parental careers to the mortality and fertility groups (clusters) their family members are in.
For these research questions we will use the COR*-database, which contains fully linked micro level demographic data on individual life courses based on the population registers and vital registration records. Due to the nature of the sample (based on surnames), the database is especially rich in data on kin-related individuals, allowing us to take into account information on siblings and cousins. The database is set in the Belgian district of Antwerp and contains information about the city itself and the suburban and rural communities around it for the period 1846-1910. (Show less)

Ingrid Schockaert, Pötter Ulrich : Context and Education: a Study of Diverging Work-care Trajectories using Sequence Analysis
The aim of the paper is to compare women’s work and fertility histories between two major Mexican cities, Guadalajara and Monterrey during the second half of the 20st century. Using several data sources such as labour market surveys and census data we first describe the demographic and economic evolution of ... (Show more)
The aim of the paper is to compare women’s work and fertility histories between two major Mexican cities, Guadalajara and Monterrey during the second half of the 20st century. Using several data sources such as labour market surveys and census data we first describe the demographic and economic evolution of the cities. Next, a sequence analysis applied to local retrospective surveys, provides an insight to individual work-care trajectories. Sequences are analysed using multidimensional scaling. Taking into account work and fertility over the entire life course, we hope to contribute to the understanding of the dependency between these events. In addition, we want to identify diverging trajectories and how their prevalence is related to personal and/or contextual factors.
We will show that in Guadalajara, the socio-economic organization around small familial businesses offers a differentiated labour market favourable to women’s participation even when they have family care responsibilities. This situation generally encourages more continuous work-care trajectories, but it also allows for more divergence in timing and intensity of both work and fertility. This variation exists between as well as within social classes. In Monterrey the economic structure was dominated until recently by large-scale industry in which women have much less work (and fertility) options. Consequently, the variability in work-care trajectories is much lower and women tend to abandon the labour market after marriage. Differences between the cities and also between generations are most apparent for women with lower educational levels.
(Show less)



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