According to Malthus’ Essay on the Principle of Population (1798), population growth was counteracted throughout early modern times by the positive checks of war, hunger and disease. Although there is an extensive body of early modern research on the burden of famine and epidemics (Alfani and Murphy 2017; Alfani and ...
(Show more)According to Malthus’ Essay on the Principle of Population (1798), population growth was counteracted throughout early modern times by the positive checks of war, hunger and disease. Although there is an extensive body of early modern research on the burden of famine and epidemics (Alfani and Murphy 2017; Alfani and O Grada 2017), evidence about warfare and its effects on population is scant. Traditionally, the demographic impact of warfare is accounted for by the collapse of nuptiality and fertility, and a massive rise of mortality during the war. Wartime mortality was not necessarily restricted to soldiers, but could also severely affect civilians (Gutmann 1980). Armies plundered, destroyed harvests, left villages ravaged and triggered the spread of diseases and epidemics. Still, as Outram (2002) has rightly argued, these explanations provide little scope for variations in the demographic impact of early modern warfare. In fact, according to Malthus, "Flanders, though so often the seat of the most destructive wars, has always, after the respite of a few years, appeared as rich and populous as ever”.
Flanders is extremely relevant for studying the spatial variations in wartime effects, as it was characterized by highly diversified regional economies (social agro-systems) defined by distinct soil typologies with differing agrarian structures and socio-demographic patterns (Thoen 2001). In a previous paper (Devos, Lambrecht and Winter 2019), marked regional differences were revealed between coastal Flanders with its high pressure demographic regime, commercial capital-intensive agriculture and unhealthy marshland ecology on the one hand, and inland Flanders characterized by a more low pressure demographic regime, small-scale farming and industrial linen manufacturing on the other hand. In this paper we go one step further by addressing the potential differential impact of warfare. We examine Flanders’ acclaimed resilience by examining the demographic impact of warfare across its territory between 1650 and 1800. Particular attention is paid to the demographic effects of the Nine Years’ War (1688-1697) and the French Revolutionary Wars (1792-1797), both of which produced severe mortality crises (Devos and Van Rossem 2016). Using data from population listings and parish registers (births, marriages, sex and age-specific deaths) collected by the STREAM project together with its tailored geographical information system, we systematically investigate population developments for the parishes of early modern Flanders. By estimating the components of population growth (nuptiality, fertility, migration and mortality) in the different parishes, we analyse how they dealt with the burden of conflict and war.
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